Monday, August 2, 2010

1000+ words




It just wouldn't be fun if I didn't add some commentary to this already 1000 word picture. This reflect the Manufacturing Survey that is released early each month -- yesterday this report showed a reading of 55.5 for July, down from 56.2 in June and the years high of 59.7 in May but still above 50 (which indicates growth overall).

What this does show is that the sector that led us out of the recession, largely due to business inventory restocking, is slowly. This isn't new. It's consistent with recent GDP numbers and expectations of a slowing recovery as stimulus and inventory restocking fades. Its furthe proof that the recovery will be slow --- but it also makes others fear that it won't be self-sustaining, which may lead to the Fed Reserve's actions to engage in further quantitative easing, an action markets will likely appreciate but that fiscal hawks will fear. Valid points exist on both sides.

Details on this report prove more insightful of the slowdown -- new order dropped from June to a level of 53.5. This is the lowest level since July 2009 and down from June's 58.5 reading. New orders indicate future growth as well as underline any need for future employment increases. Inventories did rise 4 pts to 50.2 but are expected to show future declines as this higher reading just barely eclipsed the pivotal 50 mark.

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