7 up, 7 down

So Rich Karlgaard of Forbes.com writes a really interesting blog - and his new years resolution for 2010 was to post 7 questions each Monday for his readers to ponder over/answer during the week.

So, I thought I'd share his questions and my brief, point-blank response/thoughts accordingly. I know you all miss the funny cartoons that accompany posts, but this time its just question-answer, pop-a-shot quick release style.

(1) How much will Scott Brown win the Massachusetts Senate seat election by today?
Karlgaard = 54-44 margin, Brown wins
Voight = 54-44 margin, Brown loses. Why I could be wrong = the race has tightened from Brown down 20 pts a month ago to Brown leading some polls by 4 as of yesterday. It's an anti-incumbent election year, regardless of party. If Brown wins it could throw a wrench in the healthcare reform by ruining the Democratic supermajority, and the nation doesn't want reform.

Why I think he'll lose = Turnout turnout turnout. Democratic registered persons outweigh Republicans by 3:1 The formula here doesn't involve or need Republicans so long as Democrats turnout. (That being said, Mass is HUGELY independent associated too, with 2.1 million registered independents; that's 30% of the state roughly). Still, common.

(2) Is Obamacare dead if Brown wins today?
Karlgaard = Maybe in the house
Voight = No, might be more watered down but its happening.

(3) Will America experience a double-dip recession?
Karlgaard = No but we'll experience lower GDP in mid 2010 and be unusually weak by recovery standards.
Voight = No. Karlgaard is a bit vague. Recovery standards GDP isn't 4%, its stronger. So maybe he means 4%? I don't know. I expect a strong Q4...maybe 4%, then a weaker Q1...maybe 3.5%...these driven and encouraged by stimulus efforts from 2009. Then a below average (2% or lower) for Q3 and Q4 of 2010 as that wears off and we see a weak transition to private sector growth/demand.

Also, if the fundamental problems initially were housing and consumer debt - those haven't been fixed. Stabilized perhaps but not fixed. So while the "recession" may not double dip, the financial stability, structure and growth of the US is inevitably hampered for a while until those fundamentals heal.

(4) Something about Google/China -- Interesting story, but not interesting enough to me

(5) Something about calling Cuba hypocritical for not helpign with Haiti problems -- again, not interesting enough to me.

(6) Why do technological breakthroughs in movies occur during recessions? I wasn't interested enough to go see Avatar so I probably am not interested enough to think this one through.

(7) Who wins the NFL games this weekend?
Kaarlgard = Colts and Saints
Voight = Colts and I really can't decide but I'll go with the Vikes because I think they have a more reliable game plan/dimensions.