On Tap this week (may 18-22)

This "On Tap" segment will start each week with a highlight of the various reports/data to come out for the week. I will update the report results in the appropriate categories of the blog as well as by posting the reported data IN ALL CAPS in this "On Tap" segment. See last week for an example.

Dow start = 8268


Monday = Housing Market index at 1pm (economy can't stabilize until housing does)

Tuesday = Housing starts at 8:30am (inventory must go down before housing stabilizes, which means either sell more than you start building or stop new housing starts)... HOUSING STARTS FELL MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED AND ARE DOWN 12.8%. THE YEAR-OVER-YEAR COMPARISON SHOWS THAT APRIL WAS DOWN 54% COMPARED TO HOUSING STARTS IN APRIL 2008. THE APRIL 2009 NUMBER REPRESENTS AN ANNUAL RATE OF 458,000 HOUSES STARTING TO BE BUILT PER YEAR. THIS IS LESS THAN THE EXPECTED RATE OF 520,000. WHAT'S THIS MEAN? LOOK AT MY COMMENTS IN THE “HOUSING” SECTION.

WHAT MAY BE MORE INTERESTING IS THAT BUILDING PERMITS (THE FORWARD LOOKING INDICATOR OF HOUSING STARTS) ALSO DROPPED MORE THAN EXPECTED = THEY DROPPED 3.3% AND ARE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS SINCE RECORD-KEEPING ON THIS SUBJECT STARTED IN 1960!


Thursday = Jobless claims at 8:30am (how will this number follow last weeks 637,000 suprise and will Chrysler/GM continue to feed the jobless numbers?); leading economic indicators report at 10am.

ECONOMISTS EXPECTED INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS TO COME IN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 620,000 TO 675,000, AND THE ACTUAL CONSENSUS EXPECTATION WAS AT 630,000. ACTUAL INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS CAME IN AT A MORE THAN EXPECTED (ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY CRAZILY LOW) 637,000. PRETTY MUCH A BREAK-EVEN, SHOWING THAT JOBLESS CLAIMS AND UNEMPLOYMENT ARE CONTINUING TO RISE AT AN ALARMING RATE EVEN IF FLATTENING OUT SOMEWHAT. WHAT IS MORE TROUBLESOME IS THAT THE "CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS" NUMBER CONTINUES TO RISE - MEANING THAT NOT ONLY ARE PEOPLE FILING INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS WITH THEIR STATES BUT THAT THEY'RE HAVING TO CONTINUE TO RELY ON THOSE UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS FOR A LONG TIME - AS OPPOSED TO FINDING A JOB AND NOT FILING "CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS." THE "CONTINUING CLAIMS" NUMBER HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY INCREASE AND INCREASED BY 75,000 THIS WEEK TO A TOTAL OF 6.7 MILLION AMERICANS FILING CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS EACH WEEK. THE REPORT DIDN'T REALLY BREAK THE BANK EITHER WAY IN TERMS OF IMMEDIATE STOCK MARKET REACTION.

THE 10am ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT SHOWED SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF +1%. THIS CONTINUES TO ECHO OTHER 'GOOD' NEWS THAT IS REPORTED... ITS NOT EXACTLY GROWTH BUT MORE OF AN 'EASING OF THE RECESSION.' SO WHILE THAT IS GOOD NEWS, THE FLAW WOULD BE TO TAKE THIS AS A SIGN OR BELIEF THAT WE'RE GOING BACK TO ACTUAL POSITIVE ECONOMIC TIMES AND GDP.

THE 10am PHILLY FED REPORT IMPROVED TO A READING OF -22.6 FROM LAST MONTH'S READING OF -24.4. AGAIN, THIS SHOWS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE RECESSION BUT ITS STILL A NEGATIVE AND CONTRACTIONARY NUMBER/READING. SO THINGS ARE STILL BAD. AGAIN WITH THE SAME MANTRA I'VE TYPED FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO -- ITS GOOD THAT SOME SIGNS ARE SLOWING BUT THEY AREN'T POSITIVE. STABILIZATION IS GOOD. JUST DONT MISTAKE IT FOR ACTUAL GROWTH OR TURNAROUND. MOREOVER, STABILIZATION IS JUST A BREATHING POINT BETWEEN EITHER THE NEXT MOVE UP ... OR DOWN. IF THESE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING REPORTS DONT EVENTUALLY SHOW ACTUAL GROWTH, THE MARKETS ARE GOING TO REACT IN A MEAN WAY BECAUSE THE MARKETS ARE EXPECTING AND HAVE PRICED IN A POSITIVE GROWTH NATURE FOR THE 2ND HALF OF 2009.