On Tap this week (may 26-29)

Dow starts = 8277

Tuesday = Consumer Confidence at 10am (see Consumer section as to why I'm not a huge fan of these reports even though they may temporarily move the markets). WELL NOT TO ANYONE'S SUPRISE, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE ON THE GOODS NEWS OF THE MARKET GAINS AND THE POSITIVE SPIN OF ALL THE ECONOMIC EFFORTS. THE READING JUMPED FROM 40.8 IN APRIL TO 54.9 IN MAY (THE BIGGEST JUMP IN 6 YRS). THE MARKET REACTED BY SPURTING UPWARD DRAMATICALLY. NOTE THOUGH, THAT PEOPLE DESCRIBING JOBS AS 'PLENTIFUL' WAS STILL DRAMATICALLY LOW AT APPROX 5%. ONLY 5% OF PEOPLE PLAN ON BUYING A CAR IN THE NEXT 6 MTHS AND ONLY 2.3% PLAN ON BUYING A HOUSE.

Wednesday = Existing home sales at 10am (see housing below for really interesting comments/info on how foreclosures are keeping home sales and housing in general from bottoming, possibly until middle or late 2010). EXISTING HOME SALES ROSE 2.9% IN APRIL WHICH WAS EXACTLY IN LINE WITH AND MET EXPECTATIONS. ON THE BAD SIDE HOWEVER, IS THE FACT THAT EXISTING HOMES FOR SALE CONTINUED TO RISE (BY 8.8%), MEANING THAT EXTRA SUPPLY IS GOING TO LEAD TO CONTINUED PRICE DECREASES. THE AVERAGE HOME PRICE FELL 15.4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR.

Thursday = Durable Goods report at 8:30am. DURABLE GOODS SALES ROSE 1.9% IN APRIL, WHICH WAS ABOVE EXPECTATIONS. HOWEVER, MARCH'S NUMBER WAS REVISED DOWNWARDLY IN AN EQUALLY SHARP FASHION FROM A DECLINE OF -0.8% TO -2.1%. THE CONSENSUS EXPECTED FOR APRIL WAS 0.4%; Jobless Claims at 8:30am (see if they stay steady in the mid 600,000s or if they get closer to 700,000 with Chrysler/GM influence -- consensus expectation is 635,000). JOBLESS CLAIMS CAME IN BELOW EXPECTATIONS AT 623,000. INTERESTINGLY, THIS NUMBER DOES NOT REFLECT AUTO SALES FIRINGS, AS NO STATES REPORTED OR CITED JOB CUTS IN THAT SECTOR FOR LAST WEEK. HOWEVER, THE JOB LOSSES TO COME FROM THE CHRYSLER AND GM DEBACLES ARE INEVITABLE. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS CONTINUES TO RISE REMINDING THAT NOT ONLY ARE PEOPLE LOSING THEIR JOBS BUT NEW JOBS ARE BEING CREATED AND PEOPLE ARE STAYING UENMPLOYED LONGER;

New home sales at 10am. NEW HOME SALES CAME IN MARGINALLY BELOW EXPECTATION FOR APRIL AT 352,000 HOMES SOLD WHEN ECONOMIC CONSENSUS WAS EXPECTING 360,000. THE AVERAGE SALES PRICE FELL 14.9% YEAR OVER YEAR. ALL THIS INDICATING THAT A HOUSING RECOVERY WILL (AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN WE REPEAT) BE SLOW AND LONG AND LESS THAN DYNAMIC, AS PEOPLE ARE STILL LOSING THEIR JOBS, ECONOMY REMAINS WEAK/EVEN NEGATIVE, AND SUPPLY OVERWHELMS DEMAND (DUE TO CONTINUED BUILDING BUT ALSO LARGELY DUE TO FORECLOSURES).

Friday = GDP report for Q1 2009 (initial estimate had come in at -6.1% but is expected to be revised to -5.5%); REVISED GDP FOR 1Q 2009 CAME IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS AT -5.7%. THIS DATA POINT DOESN'T TELL TO MUCH. THE MAIN GDP DATA POINTS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE 2ND OF 2009 WHERE SOME ARE EXPECTING GROWTH. BEAR EXPECT CONTINUED DECLINES ALTHOUGH MUCH LESS SO. IT MAY BE THOSE DATA POINTS THAT ULTIMATELY RULE ON WHO HAS BEEN MORE ACCURATE IN ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC MALAISE. WHILE MARKET MOMENTUM HAS BEEN UP OVERALL, ECONOMISTS REMAIN FAIRLY SPLIT ON HOW THE 2ND HALF OF 2009 WILL LOOK.

Chicago PMI at 9:45am (this deals with manufacturing producers and how their business/inventories/etc have improved from month to month. The reading is expected to rise from 40.1 in April to 42, which is still below the crucial level of 50...below 50 = economy is contracting; above 50 = growing); Consumer Sentiment is at 10am (again, not a fan of this or Consumer Confidence reports) WELL, 1 MONTH DOESN'T A TREND MAKE, BUT THE MIDWEST MANUFACTURING REPORT CAME IN WELL BELOW EXPECTATIONS. THE REPORT SHOWED A READING OF 34.9, WHEN 42 WAS EXPECTED AND THE LAST MONTH'S READING WAS 40.1. MOREOVER, NEW MANUFACTURING ORDERS FELL NEARLY 5 POINTS TO 37.1 INDICATING THAT AN UPTICK IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS NOT REALLY OCCURRING, OR AT LEAST NOT THIS PAST MONTH. KEEP IN MIND, A READING BELOW 50 MEANS THE ECONOMY IS CONTRACTING, SO EVEN A 42 WOULDN'T HAVE MEANT EXPANSION AND JOB CREATION AND GROWTH BUT RATHER LESS DETERIORATION. SO THIS PERSISTENT IDEA THAT THINGS ARE IMPROVING....WELL THEY REALLY AREN'T AND NOW IT APPEARS THEY MIGHT NOT EVEN BE GETTING WORSE AT A SLOWER RATE...