On Tap this week (june 15-19)

After a rather long number of days with limited posts, TSM is back. But no worries, last week was much like the week before it with very limited action, little movement, and less material developments. This week has a number of economic reports that coupled with investor restlessness and mounting expectations for actual visual progress could be instrumental to drive the market lower or higher - and I (for the sake of reality and not any malicious intent) believe lower is more appropriate.

Dow starts = 8799

Monday = Empire State Manufacturing Report 8:30am. THIS REPORT OF GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS PREVIOUSLY HAD A READING OF -4.6. THE CONSENSUS EXPECTATION WAS FOR AN IMPROVED READING OF -2. THE ACTUAL READING WAS A VERY POOR -9.4. Housing Market Index 1pm (the previous reading of this index increased from 14 to 16 for May - however, this is more of an evalutative and opinion based report whereby survey respondents in the housing organization/industry give their thoughts/opinions on the general status of things. yes they know more about the industry than others but its possible that the pervasive and overwhelming optimism or should i say hope that is largely directing the market - despite a lack of corresponding reality in the economy - could inflate the reading beyond what actual data shows). HOMEBUILDER SENTIMENT UNEXPECTEDLY SLIPPED IN MAY FROM A READING OF 16 TO 15. THE ONGOING CREDIT CRUNCH AND RISING MORTGAGE RATES WERE LARGELY TO BLAME, ALONG WITH CONTINUED FORECLOSURES AS AVERAGE JOE FAILS TO BE ABLE TO PAY HIS BILLS AND THE SLOWING HOUSING DEBACLE CONTINUES TO EBB ITS WAY INTO REGULAR MORTGAGES.

Tuesday = Housing Starts 8:30am; HOUSING STARTS JUMPED 17.2% LAST MONTH, REBOUNDING FROM A TOTAL DIVE THE MONTH BEFORE. SO WHILE THE NUMBER SPIKE LOOKS GOOD, THE BALANCE BETWEEN THE TWO MONTHS MAY BE MORE MODERATE THAN THE 17.2 LETS ON. NONETHELESS, NEW BUILDING PERMITS (AN INDICATION OF FUTURE HOUSING STARTS/CONSTRUCTION) GREW 4%, THE BIGGEST GAIN SINCE JULY 2008. AGAIN, THE MONTHLY COMPARISONS ARE RELATIVELY SHORT-SIDED THOUGH;

PPI at 8:30am; PRODUCER PRICE INDEX CAME IN AT 0.2%, LESS THAN THE 0.6% EXPECTED. THIS CONTINUES TO UNDERLINE THAT INFLATION WORRIES APPEAR TO BE PREMATURE, NO MATTER HOW LEGIT.

Industrial Production at 9:15am; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CAME OUT SLIGHTLY WORSE THAN EXPECTED AT -1.1%. THE IDEA THAT PRODUCTION IS DECREASING AND DEMAND FOR MANUFACTURED ITEMS IS DECREASING IS NOTHING NEW AND SHOULDNT BE SHOCKING. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LONGER UNTIL THE EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN CONSUMER SAVINGS AND STABILIZING PRODUCTION FIGURES. CURRENT SAVINGS RATES ARE AROUND 5% AND MANY PROJECT THEM TO HIT 10% AND THEN STABILIZE, SO WE MAY HAVE SOME WAYS TO GO. ALSO IN THIS REPORT, I FIND IT INTERESTING THAT "APPLIANCE, FURNITURE AND CARPETING" WERE DOWN -1.1% AFTER A 1.5% RISE THE MONTH BEFORE. THESE HOME PROJECTS AND DURABLE GOODS SEEMED TO BE ONE OF THE STRONG POINTS IN DATA AS CONSUMERS CONTINUED TO SPEND BUT ON MORE WISE ITEMS. NOW THOSE ARE WANING.

Wednesday = CPI at 8:30am; THIS REPORT WAS RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL. BASICALLY, CPI INCREASED 0.1%, LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE RISE IN OIL. WHAT'S THIS MEAN - WELL, INFLATION WONT BE REARING ITS HEAD ANYTIME SOON LIKELY AND IT GIVES SOME SOLACE TO THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE CAN STILL AFFORD BASIC HOUSEHOLD ITEMS, EVEN IF THEY CANT AFFORD GAS TO GET THEM OR THEIR HOME MORTGAGE TO HOUSE THEM.

Thursday = Jobless Claims at 8:30am; INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE THIS WEEK BUT WERE LARGELY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. THE NUMBER CAME IN AT 608,000, CONSISTENT BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE REVISED NUMBER OF 604,000 FROM THE WEEK BEFORE. SO WHILE NUMBERS ARE NO LONGER IN THE MID TO HIGH 600S, CONSISTENT 600,000 JOB LOSSES ARE STILL VERY DRASTIC.

Econ Leading Indicators at 10am; THIS REPORT CAME IN IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS AT 1.2% INCREASE, JUST BEATING EXPECTATIONS OF 1%

Philly Fed Survey at 10am; THIS WAS THE REPORT THAT SUPRISED, COMING IN AT A READING OF -2.2 AFTER A -22.6 READING LAST MONTH. THIS IS THE BEST READING SINCE 2003. AGAIN, IM NOT HUGE ON SURVEYS THAT CAN TEND TO READ INTO HOPE AND OPTIMISM IN CURRENT DAYS, BUT ITS A MARKET MESSAGE THAT IS WORTH NOTING - ESP WHEN ITS THIS VOCAL AND STRONG.

Friday = options expiration day