Thursday, May 20, 2010

Looking for Technicals?

Take a peak at the S&P500 chart from the past 18 months and listen to some of the investor/trader commentary and a number that you'll hear repeated as a significant technical level is 1050.

If you look at the charts you can see that the S&P really traded in a range from 1050-1130 for a span of around 6 months. It broke out in Feb 2010 through early April, but has now returned to that range.

If the 1050 does get challenged and does NOT hold, then the next major range for the S&P was from 2nd quarter 2009 when it traded between 880 and 940. While there are some minor support levels between 1050 and 940 they aren't that strong, and that is what has traders and markets fearful of a close below 1050...

Certainly an oversold bounce in the market could happen at 1050 or sooner, but the volatility index is above 40 currently (a critical level) and the European headlines don't appear to be stopping anytime soon (Greecian protests again this morning). Combine this with the uncertainty surrounding the financial reform bill in Congress and its easy to see why people are willing to forego risk and put their money into fixed income investments.

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