Friday, May 28, 2010

Building a Right Shoulder?



A head and shoulder pattern emerges when the market rallies to a certain level, retraces back to a certain level (creating a left shoulder), then rallies to a higher level and retraces back near to that same certain level (creating a head), and then rallies back to the original rallies level -- only to then retrace and fall back to the level where the original rally started from (creating the right shoulder).

Confusing - ok, here are the numbers for the possible present scenario (and mind you, its not the prettiest or most clear-cut pattern of these). The S&P rallied from 950ish to 1050 in mid 2009 and kinda of meandered there, slowly rising up to 1150. Then it retraced to 1050 in Feb 2010. LEFT SHOULDER. Then it rallied to 1230 in early April and retraced to 1050 in early May. THE HEAD.

Recently, the S&P reclimbed back up near the 1100 range (with the potential for some rallying up to 1150 at the most). Given this recent mini rally, it would be very logical and consistent to then see the rest of the pattern finished off and the S&P roll-over and head back down to 1050 at a minimum or, more completely, to 950. THE RIGHT SHOULDER.

It would take some more European jitters and rumors as well as an underperforming US economy and/or Chinese slowdown... but hey, all those cards are in the deck currently.

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