Thursday, October 29, 2009

Everyone wants [solid GDP growth]...




This mornings numbers are large on two fronts:

(1) While initial jobless claims continues to be fairly north of 500,000 for each week, the continuing claims number has reduced substantially from its high of nearly 6.9 million people (today's report shows it around 5.7 million people). This could mean that people have moved on to other support programs for unemployment money or it could mean that they're finding part time work or other means to make ends meet as the economy has stabilized and employers have some (if minimal) need for additional help/work. This is import because the market was not expecting that - while it has already priced-in an expected the new 500,000 initial jobless claims for the week.

(2) 3Q 2009 GDP came in slightly above expectations at 3.5% -- this is important, not because its so big or unexpected - it's important because it met expectations and because it provides POSITIVE news for the economy that has been absent for the past few weeks (amidst the weekly economic reports and earnings). Sure that GDP growth is bumped up by government stimulus programs, but the important thing, at least for the market (albeit maybe not the economy really) is that it should provide a wall, a bounce, a slinky type spring and halt the correction the market had begun to undertake. Does that mean the correction is just being delayed? Will negative economic news on unemployment % reported next week resume the downward trend? Perhaps, but for the time being, investors and brokers have reason to resume an upward momentum and regain the 5% losses of the past recent days.

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